Why China 'turning off tap' may be another Pakistan bluff

GUWAHATI/NEW DELHI: Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma Monday demolished latest Pakistani scaremongering after India decisively stepped away from Indus Waters Treaty - what if China cuts off Brahmaputra's water supply to India? He called it a myth & cited hard data to prove the river slicing through Assam is a rain-fed watercourse that grows in India, not shrinks."Let's dismantle this myth - not with fear, but with facts and national clarity," Sarma posted on X, adding: "Brahmaputra is not a river India depends on upstream - it is a rain-fed Indian river system, strengthened after entering Indian territory."According to Sarma, China's contribution to the river's flow is minimal, only 30-35%, mostly from glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall. The rest 65-70% is generated inside India by torrential monsoon rainfall across Arunachal, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya.Sarma further listed major Indian tributaries feeding Brahmaputra - Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, and Kopili, along with inflows from Khasi, Garo, and Jaintia Hills via rivers like Krishnai, Digaru, and Kulsi.If China ever does "turn off the tap", Sarma said it might actually reduce flood devastation in Assam, which displaces lakhs annually. At Tuting on India-China border in Arunachal's Upper Siang district, Brahmaputra's flow is 2,000-3,000 cubic metre per second - but swells to 15,000-20,000 cubic metre per second in Assam during monsoon.Backed by water governance experts, Sarma's post drew strong support from Nilanjan Ghosh, vice-president of Development Studies and senior director at Observer Research Foundation in Kolkata. Ghosh said China's upstream interventions will have "negligible or almost no effect" on Brahmaputra's overall flow.Brahmaputra originates at Angsi Glacier in Tibet, flows 1,625km as Yarlung Tsangpo before entering India where it runs 918km - as Siang, Dihang, then Brahmaputra - and finishes its 2,880km journey with a 337km stretch in Bangladesh, before meeting Ganga. Though China has announced plans to build a massive hydropower dam on Yarlung Tsangpo, Indian experts said Brahmaputra's scale and Indian monsoon strength make fears of water cuts largely unfounded.IDSA senior fellow Uttam Sinha, citing peer-reviewed data, said even during lean periods Yarlung Tsangpo's annual outflow from China is far lower than Brahmaputra's total discharge in India. "India’s lower riparian position does not necessarily mean acute disadvantage," said Sinha. He, however, believes that irrespective of whether China eventually builds a super dam or not, India must be prepared by building capacity with an integrated approach to storage facilities, embankments, flood diversion, flood mitigation, inland navigation programmes, and monitoring and verifying capabilities of the flows of the rivers that come from China by using superior satellites for flood risk mapping and flood forecasting.He said, "As the upper riparian state, China is strategically exploiting Pakistan’s position as the lower riparian to needle India so as to serve its own regional ambitions. Beijing is using the Indus Waters Treaty context to amplify Islamabad’s anxieties and indirectly pressure New Delhi, hoping to box India in on multiple fronts."This is classic China–Pakistan coordination: Islamabad plays the aggrieved party, while Beijing plays the enabler - leveraging geography as a tool of coercive diplomacy. India should see through these tactics. China wants to shape a South Asian water narrative where India is isolated and hesitant, even when acting within its rights."Referring to the post of Assam chief minister, Anjal Prakash, Research Director of the Hyderabad-based Indian School of Business (ISB), said the facts dismantle the myth of dependency on China’s flow, highlighting that over 65% of water originates within India, supported by robust monsoon rainfall and tributaries."The Brahmaputra’s flow fluctuates naturally, and even if China were to restrict its contribution - an unlikely scenario - it could potentially reduce devastating floods rather than harm India’s water supply. This underscores India's resilience, self-sufficiency, and strategic independence," he said.