Why 2027 census will be most politically loaded exercise in our history

The incredible delay in announcing the decennial census will make this headcount the most politically loaded exercise in India’s history. In the two-phased census operations announced by GOI on June 4, the house-listing phase is being planned between April and Sept 2026, with the actual headcount pushed to Feb 2027. Since March 1, 2027 is the record date for the population census, this will be the basis for the delimitation of parliamentary constituencies in the future.The 84th amendment, which froze Lok Sabha seats for states based on population levels in 1971, specified that the delimitation exercise will be based on the results of the first census after 2026.Few people believe that the enormous delay has had anything to do with Covid. It’s all about a political calculus. BJP thinks it will benefit from the population shifts the census will record, resulting in the Hindi belt getting more Lok Sabha seats at the expense of the south.The political nature of the census is underlined not only by the delimitation exercise, but also the women’s reservation bill passed in the previous term of Modi govt, which is to take effect only after delimitation. Plus, caste enumeration will be part of this census.Question is, will the limited time available between the scheduled completion of the census in Feb 2027, and the actual release of the authenticated final totals later in the year or in early 2028, be enough to legislate changes before the 2029 general elections? Even assuming the totals are in by late 2027, can the delimitation exercise itself be carried out in just about another year?In the meanwhile, as initial details of the headcount start getting leaked to the media, those who may lose out on Lok Sabha seats will kick up a political row that the governing coalition will not be able to ignore.With three contentious issues looming, can a political consensus be achieved so soon and so easily?What’s more likely is that the electoral power shift that will follow the census exercise will not take effect before the general elections in 2029, specially since Modi govt does not have a majority of its own, and many of its coalition partners in the south — TDP, JDS and ADMK — may not be on the same page initially.The law of unintended consequences says that whatever be the initial assumptions, the fallout can be more uncertain or unexpected. The simple belief that BJP will be the primary beneficiary of delimitation may not be fully valid.* First, if BJP hopes to make greater inroads in the south, it cannot easily dismiss the concerns of southern states, which will see a reduction in their population shares after the census.* Second, even though opposition may not accept a drastic shift in parliamentary power from south to north, its unity cannot be taken for granted. In the north and east, many regional parties — SP, RJD, BJD — and even Congress cannot take an outright stand against delimitation.What if the JDU-BJP combine, facing a difficult Bihar election, makes delimitation an issue, since this will give the state a larger share of voice at the Centre? Will Congress and RJD then change their stands?If Congress ever wants to return to the Centre with 200+ seats, a lot of the additional seats will have to come from the north. Ditto for its potential coalition partners in INDIA bloc.* Third, regardless of what the headcount shows, the next delimitation exercise will likely involve a larger seat allocation for SCs and STs, whose share of the population could have gone up. Will these groups agree to kick the can further down the road?In the last delimitation exercise, even though total Lok Sabha seats were frozen at 543, the share of SCs and STs went up since their shares were calculated on the basis of the 1991 census, while the rest had to be based on 1971.* Fourth, it is unlikely that women’s reservation can be implemented without a drastic expansion of the total number of Lok Sabha seats. If that is not done, a third of existing MPs will see their seats going to women, which will create lots of heartburn in all parties.* Fifth, the caste enumeration will inevitably lead to talk of more education and job quotas, and an increase in the total number of reserved seats beyond the 49% limit set by the Indra Sawhney judgment of the Supreme Court.This limit has already been breached, with the apex court accepting the GOI logic of an additional 10% reservation for the economically weaker sections, while Tamil Nadu already has a constitutionally sealed 69% limit. The pressure will be to raise the limits further and extend some form of reservations in the private sector, for this is where most jobs will be created.What all these underlying tensions and calculations — real, implied or anticipated — suggest is that negotiations for a consensus will be protracted and heated.It is not going to be easy for Modi govt to rush through the changes in time for the 2029 elections. It will have to talk not only to all opposition parties but also its own coalition partners.Regional parties will surely seek to drive hard bargains, and BJP may not be unwilling to push some of its own agendas through as part of the bargaining, including support for one-nation-one-election (ONOE) as the price for delaying the delimitation exercise.With so much political brinkmanship ahead, one has to assume that the final figures of the census will become election issues in 2029, but may not be converted into real change till some time later. Unless everything about the census is now in fast-forward mode, after the slow stall of the last few years.